Playbook: What hasn’t changed about Jan. 6

With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

MARK YOUR PLANNER — “House Speaker Mike Johnson invites Biden to deliver the State of the Union address on March 7,” by AP’s Seung Min Kim

Nota bene … That’s two days after Super Tuesday and three days after DONALD TRUMP’s D.C. trial for conspiracy to subvert the 2020 election is set to begin.

SPLIT-SCREEN HISTORY — Three years out from the violent post-election insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, Jan. 6 continues to be a significant political liability for Trump. While many Republican voters have not only forgiven the former president but embraced the “Big Lie” over the years, new polling indicates that the rest of America simply hasn’t joined them, as our colleague Steve Shepard writes in a story up this morning — and perceptions of what happened that historic day remain largely unchanged from two years ago.

“Democrats and independents still hold starkly negative views of Jan. 6, its participants and Trump’s role in stoking the riot,” Steve writes. “Majorities of Americans overall still believe now-President JOE BIDEN was elected legitimately, that Trump is guilty of trying to steal the election and that the federal criminal charges in Washington against Trump are appropriate.”

A closer look …

• Half of respondents think Jan. 6 rioters were violent, down only a bit from 54% two years ago, per a WaPo-University of Maryland poll this week.
• Most Americans continue to support the prosecution of rioters, with the portion of those disagreeing and calling punishments too harsh growing 7 points over two years to 26% — mostly among Republicans.
• And 53% of Americans still finger Trump for the attack that day, down 7 points from two years ago — a dip largely driven by Republicans’ perception changes. Meanwhile, 56% of independents said the same.

This reality, however, has not exactly dawned on GOP voters. Trump’s march to the nomination still seems almost inevitable. As we noted, the subset of Republicans dismissing or even embracing the attack has grown, with a third of GOP voters even erroneously believing the FBI organized the Capitol attack, per the WaPo-UMD poll.

Meanwhile, Trump isn’t the only one leaning into calls for retribution — his voters are following suit. A day that initially seemed like the end of Trump’s political career has three years later become “a source of sympathy for the man,” as our colleague Myah Ward writes from Mason City, Iowa, where Trump rallied last night.

Two quotes worth reading:

— “There was no insurrection. I believe he’s being framed,” Trump voter BARBARA LAGOW told Myah. “I believe the FBI did have something to do with it … The whole thing just smacks. It smells bad.”

— “I could tell from the beginning that this was a setup,” said another attendee, RYAN SLOTH. “There’s no way all those officers, no cops stopped it. … And it’s infuriating to see those people still in jail.”

Those quotes, and the polling above, presage a presidential campaign where “reality is at stake,” as NYT’s Michael Bender, Lisa Lerer and Michael Gold write this morning: “Mr. Trump’s strategy aims to upend a world in which he has publicly called for suspending the Constitution, vowed to turn political opponents into legal targets and suggested that the nation’s top military general should be executed.”

Trump, all the while, continues to lean in. During his rally in Sioux Center, Iowa, last night, he called imprisoned Jan. 6 rioters “hostages.” And yet, once again, polling indicates that this is not where voters are. A recent Suffolk University/USA Today poll found that 59% of voters agreed that prosecuting the rioters was “the appropriate work of the justice system” while a third disagreed and said those indictments should be “reversed.”

These public perceptions, of course, create a major opening for Biden. And, as we’ve written several times now in Playbook, the president continues to lean in. During his speech yesterday at Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, Biden cast his own reelection — and Trump’s defeat —as imperative to protecting democracy.

“Whether democracy is still America’s sacred cause is the most urgent question of our time. It is what the 2024 election is all about,” Biden said, a message that’s front and center in a new campaign ad that will start airing today in seven swing states.

Meanwhile … The Supreme Court, as expected, announced yesterday it will weigh in on one of many pending legal questions surrounding whether Trump will be held accountable for Jan. 6 beyond the ballot box. The justices set oral arguments for Feb. 8 on whether Trump can be banned from ballots in Colorado (and, by extension, other states) under the 14th Amendment. Per the AP, that means the court’s final ruling on the matter could drop before Super Tuesday — when Colorado primary voters take to the polls.

JUST POSTED — “A tense new Jan. 6 video shows Republican congressmen admonishing rioters trying to enter House chamber,” by NBC’s Ryan Reilly

MORE ANNIVERSARY HEADLINES — “How the GOP’s rewriting of Jan. 6 paved the way for Trump’s comeback,” by WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey … “Family of Ashli Babbitt files wrongful death lawsuit against U.S. government,” San Diego Union-Tribune … “Fanone, Dunn are fighting back politically after being attacked as police officers on Jan. 6,” by Emily Ngo and Nicholas Wu

Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

Biden has nothing on his public schedule.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will travel to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, to deliver the keynote address at the 7th Episcopal District AME Church Women’s Missionary Society annual retreat at 1:20 p.m. at the Hilton Myrtle Beach Resort, before returning to Washington in the afternoon.

On the trail

Trump is on an Iowa swing, hitting Newton and Clinton today for rallies. More from the AP

PLAYBOOK READS

9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US

1. WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT: The Pentagon announced last night that Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN has been hospitalized at Walter Reed all week following complications from an elective procedure, AP’s Lolita Baldor reports. DOD said Austin is “recovering well” and was expected to fully resume his responsibilities yesterday, and that his deputy was prepared to step in if necessary this week.

But the revelation that the Pentagon hid Austin’s absence for several days prompted outrage from reporters, and the Pentagon Press Association demanded a meeting over the matter. “As of tonight I do not see a way forward for believing the Pentagon tells the truth on anything,” said former longtime CNN reporter BARBARA STARR; former DOD Trump official EZRA COHEN called that “more than a little hyperbolic.”

Related read: “In a second Trump or Biden term, who’d be the next defense chief?” by Lara Seligman: “If he wins a second term, Biden may want to break another barrier: putting a woman atop the Pentagon for the first time.”

2. A DIFFERENT KIND OF ELECTION DENIAL: “Michigan Republicans set to vote on chair Karamo’s removal as she promises not to accept result,” by AP’s Joey Cappelletti in Lansing: “Michigan Republicans plan to discuss the removal of state GOP Chairwoman KRISTINA KARAMO during a meeting Saturday after many of the party’s leaders have called for her resignation following a year of leadership plagued by debt and infighting. Karamo has made it clear she will not recognize the vote if removed Saturday, claiming the meeting is not official and has been illegally organized. The unfolding situation could set the stage for a court fight.”

3. HALEY’S COMET: As NIKKI HALEY tries to make a play to upset Trump, the Koch network’s Americans for Prosperity Action is launching a whopping $27 million ad campaign for her across several early-voting and Super Tuesday states, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser scooped. The “mailers, digital ads and connected TV spots” emphasize her electability. At the same time, Trump yesterday stepped up his campaign-trail attacks on Haley, knocking her on entitlements, taxes, her Civil War comment and most of all immigration, WaPo’s Marianne LeVine reports. And Never Back Down, the pro-RON DeSANTIS super PAC, is out with a video this morning highlighting Haley’s recent gaffes.

Meanwhile, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott and Ben Smith have an interesting look at JON LERNER, Haley’s crucial strategist, who stays very under the radar: “loyal, disciplined, data-oriented, and perhaps insular.”

4. BIG DEPARTURE: “NRA Chief Wayne LaPierre to Step Down Before Civil Corruption Trial,” by WSJ’s Mark Maremont and Jacob Gershman: “The NRA said [WAYNE] LaPIERRE, 74 years old, cited health as the reason for his decision to step down and said the resignation would be effective Jan. 31. LaPierre has run the NRA since 1991 and helped turn it into an unflinching force for the expansion of Second Amendment rights … In the midst of the corruption allegations, the NRA’s revenue has plunged, its membership is down, and its influence has waned.”

5. VIVEK RAMASWAMY’S FRINGE IDEAS: The presidential upstart plans to pull the U.S. out of NATO if elected president — going further than any other Republican has yet, Alex Ward reveals. Yesterday, he doubled down on a vow to make all ballots English-only, which would be illegal under the Voting Rights Act, NYT’s Anjali Huynh reports. And in the final stretch before the Iowa caucuses, Ramaswamy has “increasingly embraced extreme ideas, far-right individuals and causes, and debunked conspiracy theories,” especially around race, WaPo’s Meryl Kornfield reports.

6. SCOTUS’ OTHER BIG MOVE: “U.S. Supreme Court lets Idaho’s ER abortion ban stand for now. Here’s what comes next,” by the Idaho Statesman’s Nicole Blanchard: “The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday quietly issued an order allowing Idaho to enforce its strict abortion ban even in emergency medical situations, undoing an injunction that allowed ER doctors to perform abortions without risk of criminal prosecution. … [A]rguments are being scheduled for April.”

7. LATEST NEGOTIATIONS: Speaker MIKE JOHNSON is getting involved more directly with the Senate and White House wrangling over immigration policy: Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) said she spoke with him yesterday, and that the framework for an agreement could be struck by next week, Ursula Perano, Burgess Everett and Myah Ward report. Meanwhile, the White House is getting more aggressive, slamming Republicans for making extreme demands that could risk a shutdown or a failure to provide Ukraine/Israel aid, Jennifer Haberkorn and Myah report.

“[A]dministration aides are facing the possibility that those negotiations will falter,” they write. “If that happens, they want to turn it to their political advantage.” One more wrinkle in spending talks: Johnson is now seeking additional cuts to IRS funding, Benjamin Guggenheim and Caitlin Emma report for Pros.

8. RAISING THE PRICE: “New York Attorney General Seeks $370 Million in Penalties From Trump,” by WSJ’s Corinne Ramey and James Fanelli: TISH JAMES “had previously sought financial penalties of $250 million as part of her lawsuit accusing Trump of overvaluing his real estate … In a filing Friday, her office said that evidence and testimony introduced in the trial showed that Trump, his company and top executives intended to commit fraud and reaped hundreds of millions of dollars in ill-gotten gains.”

9. AMERICAN TRAGEDY: The school shooting this week in Perry, Iowa, has put some of the Republican presidential candidates on the defensive about guns as they campaign nearby in the state, AP’s Nicholas Riccardi reports. Haley, Ramaswamy and DeSantis were all asked on the campaign trail about stopping mass shootings, though most shied away from emphasizing guns. And the Biden campaign was quick to pounce on Trump’s comments about Perry: “It’s horrible to see that happening, that’s just horrible. So surprising to see it here. But [we] have to get over it.”

CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 15 funnies

GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza:

— “My Unraveling,” by Tom Scocca in N.Y. Mag: “I had my health. I had a job. And then, abruptly, I didn’t.”

— “Trust Fall,” by Bruce Mehlman: “Politics & Policy: 2023 Take-Aways & 2024 Look-Aheads.”

— “It’s My Privilege: Glorious Memoirs by the Very Rich,” by NYT’s Molly Young: “A look back at a time when the super-wealthy felt they had nothing to lose by letting readers inside their gilded corridors.”

— “31 Days to a Better You: A guide to pointing yourself toward happiness, from the Atlantic columnist Arthur Brooks.”

— “Behind the New Iron Curtain,” by Marzio G. Mian in Harper’s, translated by Elettra Pauletto: “Caviar, counterculture, and the cult of Stalin reborn.”

— “When Veterans in Crisis Can’t Get Help,” by ProPublica’s Kathleen McGrory and Neil Bedi: “Two veterans sought psychiatric care at a VA clinic in Chico, California. They were bounced between virtual providers and struggled to get support in the threadbare system. A staffer worried, ‘We are going to kill someone.’ Then tragedy struck.”

— “Guatemala’s baby brokers: how thousands of children were stolen for adoption,” by Rachel Dolan in the Guardian: “From the 1960s, baby brokers persuaded often Indigenous Mayan women to give up newborns while kidnappers ‘disappeared’ babies. Now, international adoption is being called out as a way of covering up war crimes.”

— “What the Oldest Lab Rodents Are Teaching Humans About Staying Young,” by Cara Giaimo in Bloomberg Businessweek: “Some of the longest-living rats and mice — including the very adorable dwarf mouse — could help unlock the mysteries of aging.”

PLAYBOOKERS

No Labels got ballot access in Maine.

Steve Scalise is out until February to get a stem cell transplant.

Roger Stone reportedly told an associate to abduct a prosecutor, though he disputes the recording’s veracity.

Joshua Hall, who threatened to kill Eric Swalwell, is running for Congress, NOTUS’ Katherine Swartz scooped.

Jack Smith has spent more than $12 million on the Donald Trump investigations.

Mike DeWine barred transgender-related surgeries for Ohio minors.

IN MEMORIAM — “Joseph Lelyveld, Former Top Editor of The New York Times, Dies at 86,” by NYT’s Robert McFadden: “In his seven years at the helm, from 1994 to 2001, The Times climbed to record levels of revenue and profits, expanded its national and international readerships, introduced color photographs to the front page, created new sections, and ushered in the digital age with a Times website and round-the-clock news operations.”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Katie Hill’s PAC Her Time is getting subsumed into the feminist organization Her Bold Move, operating together under the leadership of Jordan Zaslow. Her Bold Move is launching a 501(c)(4) this quarter, of which the former congresswoman will be board chair.

MEDIA MOVE — Miguel Almaguer has left NBC, Fox News’ Brian Flood reports.

TRANSITION — Dan Dukes has launched his own government affairs firm, trACTION Strategic. He previously was a longtime lobbyist in iHeartMedia’s government affairs office.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Jennesh Agagas, an associate producer for Fox News’ “Your World with Neil Cavuto,” and John Davies, a senior auditor for the Research Foundation of CUNY, recently welcomed Mia Davies. Pic … Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) … Olivia Nuzzi … WSJ’s Kate O’Keeffe and James Taranto … MSNBC’s Shaquille Brewster … Terri Fariello of United Airlines … Kimball Stroud … POLITICO’s Kaitlyn Locke, Christa Marshall and Kelsey Hayes … Eric Trump (4-0) … Stuart Siciliano of Penta … Kate Randle Ross … Kathleen Gayle … Joe Hagin … former FBI Director Louis Freeh … former FEMA Director James Lee Witt … Matt Ford … Abby Gunderson-Schwarz … Mandy Bowers … David Polyansky … Air & Space Forces Magazine’s Chris Gordon … Oregon AG Ellen Rosenblum … Sallie Sorenson of the Herald Group … Natalie Boyse

THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here):

CBS “Face the Nation”: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis … Speaker Mike Johnson … Liz Cheney … Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) … Harry Dunn.

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott … Denver Mayor Mike Johnston … Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.). Panel: Stef Kight, Josh Kraushaar, John Delaney and Josh Holmes.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Israeli President Isaac Herzog … Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) … Quentin Fulks. Panel: Mike Memoli, Peggy Noonan and Kimberly Atkins Stohr.

ABC “This Week”: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) … Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas). Panel: Donna Brazile, Sarah Isgur, Julie Pace and Susan Page.

CNN “State of the Union”: Mike Pence … Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.). Panel: Ashley Allison, Brad Todd, Doug Thornell and Amanda Carpenter.

MSNBC “Inside with Jen Psaki”: Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) … Sarah Longwell.

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