Informal NRA Member Survey: 75% Preparing for Civil Unrest after 2024 Election

Gun Rights

In Short: National Rifle Association members expect unrest surrounding 2024’s elections and are buying ammo ahead of the fall, according to a recent survey conducted by AmmunitionToGo.com.

NRA Crowd

Methodology and Margin of Error

The survey, conducted in person at the 2024 National Rifle Association Annual Meetings in Dallas, Texas, included nearly 1,000 respondents. The NRA claims five million protectors of the Second Amendment in its ranks. Some board members and news reports suggest that number is now closer to four million members.

Taking the NRA’s 5-million member figure, the 986 sample size returns about a 3% margin of error.

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Want the raw data to filter and explore yourself? Get the NRA Annual Meeting Survey Data here.

NRA Members on the Presidential Election

  • About 84% of NRA members do not believe Joe Biden was the legitimate winner of the 2020 election. This held steady among all age groups surveyed. 84% of 18-30-year-olds do not believe Joe Biden was the legitimate winner. 80% of those 60 and older don’t believe Biden won the election legitimately.
  • 75% of respondents anticipate some level of civil unrest surrounding the 2024 presidential election. Almost one-third of those surveyed believe there will be some kind of American Civil War in which armed citizens fight each other in the next decade.
  • 70% of surveyed respondents indicated they will be stocking up on ammo ahead of the 2024 election.
  • According to the survey responses, 39% of NRA members believe our country will see some sort of American Revolution in which citizens will have to arm themselves against a tyrannical government in the next decade. Generally, the younger the respondent, the more likely they were to believe a Revolution was imminent.

Party Affiliation

78% of NRA members plan to vote for a straight Republican ticket in the 2024 general election. 17% expect to vote a mixed party ticket, with nearly 5% indicating they don’t plan to vote at all.

The border and immigration top the list of most concerning issues for NRA members as the nation approaches the 2024 elections. Even among NRA members, gun rights are a distant second.

NRA members largest concerns ahead of 2024 election.

Member Advocacy

6 out of 10 surveyed say they have contacted a lawmaker to share their opinion on a potential law or policy related to gun rights. Generally, the older the respondent, the more likely they are to have contacted a lawmaker. 80% of respondents who were at least 60 years old have contacted a lawmaker about gun rights.

This suggests NRA members are more politically involved than the average American. A 2018 Pew Research poll found 4 of 10 adult Americans had contacted an elected official in the past five years.

The 2nd Amendment

97% of survey respondents believe the 2nd Amendment was, in part, enshrined in the United States Constitution as a defensive mechanism against a tyrannical government.

When it comes to what threatens the 2nd Amendment, NRA membership is split. That said, the concept of a gun owner database appears the most concerning to members among the more commonly discussed threats. Red flag laws and a renewed assault weapons ban follow.

Currently, Federal law prohibits a universal, national gun registry or database through the Brady Act.

Survey results asking about what the greatest threat to the 2nd Amendment is.

Rights for Anti-Gun Citizens & Politicians

Respondents did not feel that simply voting for politicians seen as “anti-gun” was grounds for giving up 2nd Amendment rights. 57% of those surveyed believe voters who support politicians pushing for tighter gun control should still enjoy the right of gun ownership.

However, NRA members see lawmakers in a different light. 84% of NRA members believe politicians who oppose the 2nd Amendment should forfeit taxpayer-funded armed security.

Gun Safety

Nearly 55% of National Rifle Association members believe a safety course of some kind should be a requirement for gun ownership. Our survey didn’t define what would constitute a “safety course.”

Respondents were also split on mental health screenings for firearm purchases. 45% of those surveyed believe a screening should be necessary prior to purchase. Generally, the younger the respondent, the more in favor of mental health screenings they are.

Support for mental health screenings for firearm purchase based on respondent age

Minority Groups & Firearms

Transgender Rights

Fewer than 22% of National Rifle Association members surveyed believe a person who has undergone gender reassignment surgery should have their firearms taken from them. 28% of respondents are undecided on the issue.

The age group most supportive of trans-gun rights was the oldest segment of our survey. Just 18% of those 60 years old and older believe gender reassignment is grounds for firearm confiscation. 29% of the 18-30 year old respondents felt gender-reassignment surgery recipients should have their guns taken away.

Non-binary and trans gun rights are an emerging issue that’s drawn strong opinions nationally. In recent history, the National Shooting Sports Foundation asked the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms for guidance related to background check forms. Then, in 2020, the ATF added a “non-binary” check box to Form 4473, the background check for firearms purchases.

Illegal Immigrants & Firearms

In March, a federal judge in Illinois found at least some illegal immigrants have gun rights via the Constitution. That contrasts with the nearly 95% of NRA members surveyed who don’t believe illegal immigrants should be allowed to legally own guns. In April, U.S. Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas introduced legislation along with a host of other senators that would notify Immigration and Customs Enforcement and relevant local law authorities when illegal immigrants attempt to purchase firearms through the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS).

The older the respondents, the more likely they are to believe illegal immigrants should not legally own firearms. 308 of 317 respondents older than 60 do not believe illegal immigrants should have firearms – that’s 97%.

Bump Stocks

In 2018, the Trump administration banned bump stocks, a type of firearm attachment that some believe allows semi-automatic rifles to fire faster. The rule gave bump stock owners until March 2019 to turn in or destroy the accessory.

The decision faced a legal challenge and went to the United States Supreme Court. With a decision from the court expected this summer, NRA members largely disagree with Trump’s decision on bump stocks. 76% of survey respondents do not support Trump’s decision to ban them. (About 9% of those surveyed do not know what a bump stock is.)

27% of those surveyed said if Trump is reelected and he signs more anti-gun bills into law, they would still support him. 68% would no longer give their support.

Memberships Feelings on the NRA

NRA members taking the survey at the 2024 Annual Meeting in Dallas
NRA members taking the survey from the Dallas show floor at the 2024 NRA Annual Meetings.

Despite media reports about lagging membership and infighting among leadership and board members, 75% of respondents trust the NRA to advocate for the 2nd Amendment. About 86% of those surveyed find value in their membership, with older members finding more value in their membership than younger members. (76% of respondents under 30 years of age find it valuable versus 94% of those older than 60.)

Still, 87% say they think the NRA could be doing more to advocate for Americans’ 2nd Amendment rights. Respondents point to the case of Kyle Rittenhouse as an example.

A jury acquitted Rittenhouse of double murder in 2021 after the 17-year-old shot and killed two Black Lives Matter protestors in Kenosha, Wisconsin. Rittenhouse successfully argued the shooting was in self-defense after an angry mob attacked him.

Three years later, Rittenhouse says the NRA did nothing to support him in his high-profile case. 74% of NRA members believe the organization should have done more to help Rittenhouse.

About the Survey Respondents

AmmunitionToGo.com conducted via face-to-face surveying of NRA Annual Meeting attendees with the aid of survey software and iPads May 17 – May 19, 2024.

Staff solicited members to take the surveys on the floor of the Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center during the annual event.

More than half of the members surveyed were 50 years old or older.

Age of survey respondents pie chart

We’d love to hear your feedback on this survey. How would you answer the questions asked at the National Convention?

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