OPINION:
Much of the American electorate is unhappy with the prospect of being forced to choose between Presidents Biden and Trump when they go to the polls in 2024. Neither the incumbent nor the former president has a lock on his party’s nomination regardless of what their managers claim, but it would be foolish at this point to bet against them.
Mr. Trump’s base wants the man back as president not so much because of his accomplishments as commander in chief, but because they identify with him and are convinced that he cares about them.
When his attackers go after him, his strongest supporters believe they are really attacking them as too dumb to appreciate his shortcomings or, worse, as Hillary Clinton’s “deplorables” who should be shunned and shouldn’t have a voice in how the country is governed.
But they also fear another four years of Mr. Biden, whom they like about as much as the president and his friends like them. True believers on both sides believe their opponent’s victory would represent an existential threat to the country. Neither side can even imagine the other side winning and both are ready to do whatever they can to prevent that from happening.
And therein lies the weakness of both Messrs. Trump and Biden. Some 70% of respondents to recent polls say they don’t think Mr. Biden should run for a second term, and 60% are less than enthusiastic about another Trump candidacy. Republicans and Democrats alike are weary of these two, and even their strongest supporters fear that their candidate may not be strong enough to beat the other.
Many voters have concluded that the incumbent has long since passed his use-by date and wonder who is really running the country. They see a man making too many mistakes and being pushed too hard as he slips into old age and, possibly, senility. His Democratic handlers wish he could run from his basement again because anything can happen on the campaign trail.
Mr. Biden is prone to blow up at questioners, forget where he is, or make announcements that make little if any sense. Gaffes add to the perception that it could be dangerous to let Mr. Biden wander around loose in the White House for another four years.
Mr. Biden and his administration’s record have Democratic professionals wondering what they’ll do if forced to replace him. They are privately wondering if he is up to the challenge, according to news reports, and it is safe to assume party leaders are pondering and perhaps developing a Plan B because they don’t believe they can let party loyalty, support of an incumbent president, or even personal attachment to Mr. Biden give the hated Republicans an edge in November 2024.
Republicans are just as desperate to win back the presidency as the Democrats are to hold it. If they can win and return Donald Trump to the Oval Office, they’ll do that, but polls of even his strongest supporters reveal a willingness to pass their hero over if it can be demonstrated that he is more likely to lose than one or more of his primary opponents.
His managers know the weakness exists. When House Speaker Kevin McCarthy observed recently that it was not clear yet whether Mr. Trump would be the party’s strongest nominee, they jumped all over him and forced him to back away from a remark that any reasonable analyst would have found unremarkable.
Each candidate is benefiting from the other’s weakness. Mr. Trump may have limited appeal outside his base, but he may well be able to win if pitted in a two-man contest against Mr. Biden. Conversely, Mr .Biden’s best shot at an extending his lease on the Oval Office is a head-to-head with Mr. Trump.
In such a contest, voters may have to suck it up and make a choice they had hoped to avoid. Given such a choice, it is difficult to imagine a committed Democrat voting for Mr. Trump or a die-hard Republican other than Liz Cheney voting for Mr. Biden.
Which explains the Democratic angst about the possibility of an independent or third-party candidate. To win, Mr. Biden needs not just the Democratic base votes that any Democrat would get against any Republican, but the softer Democratic vote as well as the vote of independents put off by Mr. Trump, but not enthusiastic about Mr. Biden.
Alternatives that could allow them to avoid voting for Mr. Biden without defecting to Mr. Trump threatens the coalition Mr. Biden needs to win. Democrats who won’t abandon the president for Mr. Trump could vote for a seemingly moderate alternative if the “No Labels” operation fields one, while more radical progressives who never liked Mr. Biden in the first place could peel off to vote for Green Party candidate Cornel West.
History tells us that independent and third-party candidates rarely make much difference at the presidential level, but in a closely divided electorate that includes millions of voters enamored with neither major party candidate, history may not be a reliable guide this time around.
• David Keene, a trusted adviser to presidents, a longtime champion of personal liberty and one of conservatism’s most respected voices, is the former opinion editor of The Washington Times. An author, columnist and fixture on national television, Mr. Keene has championed conservative causes for more than five decades while offering advice to Republican presidents and countless candidates. He also served as chairman of the American Conservative Union and president of the National Rifle Association. He can be reached at me@davidakeene.com.