Six Reasons the Democrats will Win the Midterms
By Joel D. Joseph
Kevin McCarthy is drooling over the prospect of becoming the next Speaker of the House. He believes history is on his side with the President’s party traditionally losing representation in Congress. But McCarthy is wrong. Usually, the President will bring in many members of Congress on his coattails. But Biden did not have any coattails: he barely kept the House intact, nearly losing the Democratic majority.
However, the winds are now blowing the Democrats way because of money, abortion restrictions, gun control, quality of the candidates, gubernatorial races and inflation.
Money is the lifeblood of politics. According to an analysis of federal records from WinRed, the main online Republican donation-processing portal, Republican fundraising online fell by more than 12 percent across all federal Republican campaigns and committees in the second quarter compared with the first quarter,
Democratic contributions surged at the same time. Total federal donations on ActBlue, the Democratic counterpart to WinRed, jumped by more than 21 percent. Money not only makes the world go round, it makes a big difference in close campaigns.
Turnout is the name of the game in the midterm elections. The results in Ruby Red Kansas where abortion was on the ballot in August, demonstrates the turnout potential for the abortion issue. Sixty percent of the voters in Kansas want to have the right to have an abortion. Voter turnout was enormous with 909,000 Kansans voting. This swamped the 2020 primary turnout of 636,000 voters by a whopping 43 percent. And in Democratic or purple states the turnout of women and moderate Republicans should be even stronger.
The overturning of Roe v. Wade is a wake-up call to Democrats, Independents and moderate Republicans. In November, they will turn out in droves and increase Democratic margins in the House and Senate.
3. Gun Control
The Supreme Court handed another issue to the Democrats when they overturned a New York law that prevented citizens from carrying weapons wherever they wanted. More than eighty percent of voters in American want gun restrictions. Even NRA members want more gun control. This issue will encourage more voter turnout for the Democrats.
4. Candidates and Open Seats
Twenty Republican seats and only 14 Democratic seats are up during the 2022 election. This math alone helps the Democrats in the Senate. The Republicans gave up Senate seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina due to retirements. These seats are likely to flip to the Democrats.
The quality of candidates tilts also heavily in favor of the Democrats. For example, in Georgia, Herschel Walker has proved himself thoroughly unqualified for the office. Herschel Walker is a former football star with no political experience. Walker never graduated from college. He was a Texas resident until last year. In debates he faltered and demonstrated a lack of command of the issues. In Florida, Val Demings is light years sharper than Marco Rubio. In Pennsylvania, Dr. Oz is an outsider, a transplanted Pennsylvania resident, with no political experience and is trailing John Fetterman by more than ten percent in the polls.
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