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DRIVING THE DAY
SIREN: President JOE BIDEN’s average approval rating is below 50% for the first time this year. 538: 49.8% … RCP: 49.4%
The dip has been driven by a slow erosion among independents that seems tied to the Delta surge and predates the problems in Afghanistan.
It also may be inevitable. FiveThirtyEight’s Geoffrey Skelley: “We don’t know the range in which Biden’s approval will ultimately settle, but if the past two presidents are any indication, it’ll be a narrow one: DONALD TRUMP’s approval mostly hovered between 40 and 45 percent during his presidency, while BARACK OBAMA’s approval tended to fall between 45 and 50 percent.”
But it has Biden backers concerned about 2022. N.Y. Mag’s Ed Kilgore: “[T]he 46th president and his allies should probably stop worrying about his approval ratings and just get as much done as they possibly can while they still control Congress.”
HAPPENING TODAY: The Biden administration is expected to announce that vaccinated Americans will need a booster shot as new evidence shows immunity against Covid-19 wanes faster than previously understood.
THE LATEST ON AFGHANISTAN:
— NYT: “Intelligence Warned of Afghan Military Collapse, Despite Biden’s Assurances” … “Lawmakers urge Biden to postpone full troop withdrawal until Afghan allies are evacuated” … “Biden Rattles U.K. With His Afghanistan Policy”
— WaPo: “Taliban fighters at airport checkpoints shoot, harass Afghans seeking to board evacuation flights” … “Withdrawal from Afghanistan forces allies and adversaries to reconsider America’s global role”
— WSJ: “U.S. Halted Dollar Shipments to Afghanistan to Keep Cash Out of Taliban’s Hands”
— AP: “U.S. agencies scrub websites to protect Afghans left behind”
— Reuters: “U.S. lawmakers to probe Biden administration over Afghanistan”
— Bloomberg: “U.S. Reaffirms Commitment to Taiwan After Leaving Afghanistan”
— POLITICO: “Taliban takeover leaves Afghan diplomats in Washington limbo” … “‘Just Watching With Horror’: A Photographer in Afghanistan on the Eve of Collapse”
— Fox News: “Kamala Harris plans Vietnam visit – just as Afghanistan draws comparisons to fall of Saigon”
— HuffPost: “Sean Hannity Turns Criticism Of Biden’s Afghanistan Withdrawal Into MyPillow Ad”
Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.
GOTTHEIMER OFFERS AN OPEN HAND — “I’m sure we can work this out,” Rep. JOSH GOTTHEIMER told us Tuesday night.
Thus begins the potential endgame for what is shaping up to be a decisive moment for the Biden agenda next week.
Gottheimer and eight other Democratic moderates are vowing to oppose a key vote on the budget if Democrats don’t agree to a stand-alone vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill — no waiting around for weeks or months until the multi trillion-dollar reconciliation package is ready to go. Speaker NANCY PELOSI has met the threat with barely disguised disdain.
In an attempt to box them in, Pelosi put forward a rule — which sets the terms of debate for legislation in the House — that includes the budget, the infrastructure bill and a voting rights bill that all nine moderates have co-sponsored. The tactic is having some impact: We’re told that opinions among the nine are divided on whether to oppose the rule. Some want to vote against it in a show of force to make it clear how serious they are, while others see no reason to do so as long as they hang together on the subsequent vote on the budget itself.
The White House went public Tuesday in support of Pelosi’s move, and she highlighted the endorsement in a letter to colleagues explaining why they needed to “pass the budget resolution immediately.”
So it seems likely that the Monday rule vote is safe for Pelosi, though not a sure thing. The next hurdle would be the budget vote itself.
And that brings us back to Gottheimer’s offer to negotiate. So far Pelosi and Biden don’t seem eager to get the New Jersey congressman and his colleagues in a room to work out a deal. But if they do, what could they offer them? The big fear for the nine moderates is that if the size of the reconciliation bill is reduced from $3.5 trillion, as Sens. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) and KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.) have demanded, then House progressives will bail on the infrastructure bill. The moderates want to take away the leverage progressives wield by waiting for an infrastructure vote. Progressives, of course, want to stick to the original Biden-Pelosi plan of keeping the two packages tied together to maximize their influence on the final package. That deal, after all, is one of the reasons it passed the Senate with all 50 Democratic votes.
Can Pelosi provide the moderates some kind of guarantee on their priorities — SALT relief has been their big hang-up — without alienating progressives? Or does she smack away Gottheimer’s outstretched hand and dare him and the moderates to scuttle the Biden agenda? Gottheimer is waiting by the phone.
POLICY-PALOOZA: We want your help. One of the things that we’ve come to appreciate about the Playbook audience the past seven months is that our readers are sophisticated and plugged in, and they care not just about politics, process and legislative minutiae, but also about policy.
Congress is in the midst of a historic phase of policymaking that’s unlike anything we’ve covered before. You really do have to go back to the LYNDON B. JOHNSON era to find proposals at the breadth and scale of what Biden and Democrats have put forward in their budget.
If it all became law, the federal government would guarantee four more years of education for Americans. It would open up Medicare for millions of people who don’t currently qualify. It would subsidize a transformation to an electric car industry. It would drastically increase the reach and power of the IRS. It would make corporations and the wealthy pay far more in taxes. Child care and time off from work for family and medical reasons would have generous new federal support. Unions would have more power. Millions of undocumented immigrants could become American citizens. It would all require a massive expansion of the size, power and cost of the federal government.
In the coming days we’re going to be picking out the most consequential proposals in the Dems’ plan and digging into the politics of these policies. But first we want to hear from you. What policies do you most want to see unpacked? What are the political crosscurrents that you’re witnessing from your perch at, say, a House committee, Cabinet agency or outside interest group? What policies are the most vulnerable and unlikely to survive the sausage-making process? What are the hidden land mines in Build Back Better?
Send us your scoops, insights, requests and tips at [email protected]. We’ll keep it all confidential, and it will help us cover this unprecedented period of legislating in Washington.
BIDEN’S WEDNESDAY:
— 9:30 a.m.: The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief.
— 2:15 p.m.: Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive a briefing on the pandemic and vaccination effort.
— 4:30 p.m.: Biden will speak about the Covid-19 response and vaccinations, focusing on booster shots.
The White House Covid-19 response team and public health officials will brief at 11 a.m.
THE HOUSE and THE SENATE are out.
PLAYBOOK READS
THE WHITE HOUSE
HARRIS DEEP DIVE — “What Law School Taught Kamala Harris About Political Change,” by Jesús Rodríguez for POLITICO Magazine: “What happened to the changemaking instinct that Harris exhibited at Hastings? Her law school years — the era of Harris’ life that perhaps has gotten the least public scrutiny to date — offer a window into how she thinks about her role as a politician and a Black woman in politics as she navigates being Biden’s No. 2, while also attempting to carve out her own political future.
“In interviews, former classmates and professors said that even though Harris pressed for change on campus, her activism always had an institutional flavor to it. … More than 30 years later, those who knew her in law school say that while Harris always advocated for Black civil rights, she didn’t convert from diehard activist to political insider. Rather, her approach of working within the system has remained a constant in her career — including in the White House.”
CONGRESS
MORE ON THE MONDAY INFRASTRUCTURE SHOWDOWN — “Senior House Dems launch pressure campaign ahead of key budget vote,” by Heather Caygle and Sarah Ferris: “‘We have to hold firm. We have to stay together,’ Rep. PETER DEFAZIO, chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, said on a call with members … House Majority Leader STENY HOYER also made a forceful pitch on the call, urging Democrats: ‘Remember the psychology of consensus. We’re in this together, led by the President,’ he said …
“But some of those moderates privately argue that their resolve has only hardened after Pelosi’s comments on Monday night, as well as Biden’s glaring failures in Afghanistan that they believe have heightened the need for a domestic win. … Privately, many Democrats believe the White House’s more forceful hand — in addition to further coaxing by House leadership over the next few days — will be enough to convince most of the skeptics before the vote next week.”
CRIMINAL JUSTICE REFORM NEGOTIATIONS — “Lawmakers scrap qualified immunity in police reform talks,” by Marianne LeVine and Nicholas Wu: “Qualified immunity, which shields police officers from civil liability for misdeeds, has remained one of the main points of contention in the police reform negotiations. It being taken off the table could make the final product tough to sell to progressives, who want to see it scrapped altogether and have been outspoken about their demands to change the doctrine. But Republicans have been firm that they have no interest in getting rid of qualified immunity.
“And other outstanding issues still remain. The lead negotiators — Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.), Sen. CORY BOOKER (D-N.J.) and Rep. KAREN BASS (D-Calif.) — have missed several self-imposed deadlines but are continuing discussions. … A Republican source with direct knowledge of the talks emphasized that there’s no final agreement yet on qualified immunity.”
PANDEMIC
ANOTHER BREAKTHROUGH CASE — “Texas Gov. Greg Abbott tests positive for COVID-19,” by the Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek: “Abbott, who is fully vaccinated, is not experiencing any symptoms and is isolating at the Governor’s Mansion, spokesperson MARK MINER said in a statement. He is getting Regeneron’s monoclonal antibody treatment. …
“Abbott has kept up public appearances in recent days. He spoke Monday night at what he called a ‘standing room only event’ in Collin County, later tweeting photos of him addressing a maskless crowd. His campaign tweeted a video of him mingling with the crowd, taking photos. The Collin County event was organized by the Heritage Ranch Republican Club. Neither the club nor Abbott’s office immediately responded to requests for comment on the event.” Video footage of Abbott on Monday
BEHIND THE BOOSTER DECISION — “Troubling CDC vaccine data convinced Biden team to back booster shots,” by Adam Cancryn, Erin Banco and Sarah Owermohle: “The evidence, compiled by federal scientists over the past several months, showed a decline in the initial round of protection against Covid-19 infection that’s coincided with a resurgence in cases driven by the more contagious Delta variant. The data looked at vaccine effectiveness in individuals across age groups, with varying medical conditions and who received the shot at different times.”
— “Rise of delta variant and waning immunity are fueling breakthrough infections, experts say,” by WaPo’s Joel Achenbach and Ben Guarino
BEYOND THE BELTWAY
THE NEW LIFE OF AN ELECTION OFFICER — “‘Center of the maelstrom’: Election officials grapple with 2020’s long shadow,” by Zach Montellaro in Des Moines, Iowa: “Interviews with a dozen state chief election officers at the National Association of Secretaries of State summer conference here, along with panel discussions and conversations with other conference attendees, paint a picture of a radically different American election system post-2020, reshaped by a once-in-a-generation pandemic on one side and a near-unprecedented wave of misinformation on the other.
“Now, those officials — who in many states also manage bureaucracies around things like business registration and licensing barbers and hairdressers — find their jobs dominated by elections. They have been besieged by conspiracies about what happened last year, and they’re increasingly being targeted personally by those same misinformation campaigns.”
CHANGE THAT TUNE — “As murders surge, Democrats find a new message: Fund the police,” by Reuters’ James Oliphant and Nathan Layne: “Last summer, Washington Mayor MURIEL BOWSER played a high-profile role in the protests sweeping America over police killings of Black suspects. She renamed a street Black Lives Matter Plaza and joined thousands of demonstrators there, many shouting what had become the movement’s slogan: ‘Defund the police!’
“Earlier this year, the mayor, a Democrat, proposed cutting the police budget and redirecting money to social services. Now, however, Bowser and many other Democratic city leaders are scrambling to boost police budgets and hire more officers amid the deadliest crime wave in two decades. Local and national Democrats are distancing themselves from ‘defund’ politics and policies, a reflection of how deeply unpopular the concept has become among most voters – and how effective a weapon it can be for Republican candidates.”
FROM TISH JAMES — “NRA Must Be Dissolved After Failing to Clean Up Misconduct, New York Says,” by Bloomberg’s Neil Weinberg and David Voreacos
MEDIAWATCH
MADDOW PREVAILS — “OAN Loses Appeal Against Maddow, Must Pay MSNBC at Least $250,000,” The Daily Beast’s Justin Baragona: “One America News lost the appeal of its defamation suit against MSNBC and star host RACHEL MADDOW on Tuesday, with a panel upholding a previous federal court ruling against OAN that required them to pay $250,000 of the defendants’ legal fees. OAN, owned by Herring Networks, initially sued Maddow for $10 million in July 2019 after the MSNBC star said on her show that the Trump-boosting network is ‘paid Russian propaganda,’ calling her remarks ‘malicious and utterly false.’
“Maddow’s comments, however, were based on a Daily Beast story detailing how OAN employs KRISTIAN ROUZ, a reporter who simultaneously worked for Kremlin-owned media outlet Sputnik, a well-known purveyor of Russian-backed propaganda. MSNBC’s lawyers, meanwhile, argued Maddow’s remarks were ‘protected opinion based on disclosed facts,’ adding that her commentary ‘specifically noted’ the OAN reporter was paid by Sputnik.”
PLAYBOOKERS
PLAYBOOK REAL ESTATE SECTION — “California Gov. Gavin Newsom Sells Marin County Mansion for $5.9M,” by Realtor.com’s Claudine Zap: “The politician and his wife, the actor and filmmaker Jennifer Siebel Newsom, placed the remodeled midcentury modern mansion on the market after Newsom took office. His family has since moved to the Sacramento area. The couple initially listed the high-end home for $6 million in January 2019, and quickly dropped the price to $5.7 million in March 2019. It eventually slid off the market without a buyer.
“But in late May of this year, an off-market deal was struck—at close to the original asking price. This represents a windfall for Newsom, who purchased the place in 2011 for $2,225,000. … It offers spectacular views of Mount Tamalpais and the San Francisco Bay. … The ‘kid-friendly,’ six-bedroom, 12,000-square-foot spread on 8.2 acres includes a pool, tennis court, and wine cellar, as well as separate guest quarters.”
MEDIA MOVES — Tara Ayres is now booking producer for “Newsy Tonight with Chance Seales.” She most recently was booking producer for “The Week with Joshua Johnson” and “The Mehdi Hasan Show” on MSNBC.
— “Poppy Harlow announces leave from CNN anchoring duties to study law,” CNN
PENCE ALUMNI — Jordan Wood is now a senior manager of strategic comms at Blokhaus, a blockchain marketing and comms firm. He previously was director of speechwriting for former VP Mike Pence and is a Deb Fischer, Mitch McConnell and Brett Guthrie alum.
TRANSITIONS — Bob Bissen is now director of government affairs at the National Head Start Association, its head lobbyist. He most recently was SVP at Cannae Policy Group, and is an APCO Worldwide alum. … SY Lee is now head of comms at Rebellion Defense. He most recently was an independent consultant and is an Andrew Yang and Obama DHS alum. …
… Matt Williams is now VP for state government affairs at McKesson. He most recently was managing director for health care at National Strategies, and is an AbbVie and GE Healthcare alum. … Coke Stewart will join the faculty at the Regent University School of Law. She most recently has performed the functions and duties of the deputy undersecretary of Commerce for intellectual property and deputy director of the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.
ENGAGED — Walter Smoloski, a legislative aide and press staffer for Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), proposed to Corinne Day, media relations manager for the R Street Institute and an RNC alum, in front of the Capitol this weekend. They met and began dating while attending Gettysburg College. Pic … Another pic
NEW ADDITION TO THE BUTTIGIEG FAMILY — “Pete Buttigieg And Husband Chasten Announce They Are Now Parents,” by NPR’s Alana Wise: “The news marked a moment of visibility for same-sex partners and parents who, until Buttigieg’s confirmation to the Transportation Department, had not had the representation of an openly gay person serving in a Senate-confirmed Cabinet position.”
WELCOME TO THE WORLD — “CNN’s Abby Phillip Welcomes First Baby, Daughter Naomi Angelina, with Husband Marcus Richardson,” by People’s Georgia Slater: “The CNN anchor and senior political correspondent, 32, welcomed her first baby, daughter Naomi Angelina Richardson, with husband Marcus Richardson, on Monday, August 16 … Baby Naomi arrived ‘10 days fashionably late,’ weighing 7 lbs., 6 oz., and measuring 20.5 inches, Phillip tells PEOPLE.”
— Jamie Geller, comms director for Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), and Danny Schwarz, SVP of public affairs at Hill+Knowlton and a House Judiciary alum, on Tuesday morning welcomed Avi Jesse Schwarz, who came in at 8 lbs, 3 oz.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas) … Connie Hair … Cara Mason … Scott Haber … Ben Wermund of the Houston Chronicle/San Antonio Express-News … Meera Kallupura … Lincoln Foran … WSJ’s Sadie Gurman … Bill Tomson … Megan Scully … former Rep. Toby Moffett (D-Conn.) … Paris Dennard … H.R. Bert Peña … POLITICO’s Lee Hudson, Jesse Naranjo and Elizabeth Garcia … CNN’s Simone Pathe … Anna McGreal of the Progressive Turnout Project … Bryan Greene of the National Association of Realtors … Jason Furman … Robert Lynch … Bill McCormick … Austan Goolsbee … Mark Edwards … Jeffrey Hiday of the RAND Corporation … Andrew Wilkow … Roger Zakheim … Elizabeth Letter … Gab Forsyth … Luke Mitchem … Jordan Baugh … Beth Grupp … Jua Johnson … Mary Anne Bradfield … former Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, now of Warburg Pincus (6-0) … Rosalynn Carter (94) … Bob Woodruff (6-0) … Jules Polonetsky … Holly Kuzmich of the George W. Bush Institute
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