The economy ranks as the top political issue in the 2024 campaign, polls show.
For Republicans, immigration reform is also topping the priority lists. For Democrats, it’s reproductive rights and health care.
Further below ranks gun control or gun violence, even while mass shootings continue to dominate and then slowly disappear from the headlines. Most recently there has been the Sept. 4 shooting at Apalachee High School in Georgia, which killed four people and injured nine; and Saturday night’s shooting at the Five Points South entertainment district in Birmingham, which also left four dead and 17 injured.
“When it comes to thinking about policy, the American public is pulled in so many different directions,” said Jennifer Selin, associate professor law at the Sandra Day O’Connor College of Law at Arizona State University. “While some things, like the economy, tend to affect people on a daily basis and thus are a little more tangible to them, other things, like national gun policy, tend to be most salient after a tragedy.”
Why does it trail
For most experts on gun control and policy in the U.S., the issue – while remaining as among the top policy concerns in this political season – trails behind the top issues even as hundreds of people are shot and killed daily. Mental health policy, which is often a Republican answer to gun violence, often does not rank in the polling of the most salient issues in 2024.
A Cygnal poll last month showed gun control in eighth place ranking behind a list of other policy issues and far behind inflation/economy, immigration, and threats to democracy. Pew Research Center has gun policy ranked seventh, far behind the economy and health care.
The issue has gotten little airtime during the presidential campaign, although it notably got momentary headlines in the immediate aftermath of the Georgia school shooting. Neither presidential candidate – Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump – have weighed in on the Birmingham shooting.
There are several reasons for where gun control ranks, the experts say:
The uneven distribution of gun violence in the country. A Pew Research Center poll from early June shows that even among Republican Donald Trump supporters, voters living in rural areas are more supportive of gun rights and safety than those living in urban areas. Though 83% of supporters of President Joe Biden view the growing number of guns in circulation as a problem, 28% of Trump voters living in urban areas agree while only 14% in rural areas view the trend negatively, according to Pew.
A complete split view along partisan lines on whether more gun laws are needed. Republicans, more than Democrats, view that that there already enough laws on the books addressing gun violence. According to a late July Pew poll, 58% say there is a need for stricter gun laws while 26% say the laws are about right. But among conservatives, 48% say the gun laws are “about right” while 33% say they should be less strict. Only 19% say they need to be stricter, while a whopping 92% of liberals want gun laws to be stricter.
FILE – Assault weapons and hand guns are seen for sale at Capitol City Arms Supply on Jan. 16, 2013, in Springfield, Ill. The Illinois Supreme Court will issue an opinion on the state’s ban on the sale or possession of semi-automatic weapons of the type used in the 2022 Independence Day shooting in the Chicago suburb of Highland Park that killed seven and dozens of other mass shootings nationally. Rep. Dan Caulkins, a Decatur Republican, and other gun owners of Macon County filed the lawsuit contending the law not only violates the Second Amendment but equal protection of the laws because it exempts police and military from the ban. (AP Photo/Seth Perlman, File)AP
A lack of confidence by gun control advocates that their policies will withstand judicial review. Some hold a viewpoint that the Republican majority on the U.S. Supreme Court will strike down any gun laws, leaving restrictions up to the states.
“The Supreme Court has taken such a strong position on the Second Amendment that much good legislation is now deemed unconstitutional, especially after the Bruen decision,” said John Donohue, a professor at Stanford Law School, referring to a 2022 Supreme Court ruling in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen in which the high court, in a 6-3 decision, ruled that a New York State concealed carry law was unconstitutional and that the ability to carry a pistol in public was a constitutional right.
“The stranglehold that the gun lobby has over the Republican Party makes it very difficult to get federal action on any measure that can get by the Supreme Court, so the states really are going to have to act if good gun safety measures are adopted,” Donohue said.
Jeffrey Fagan, a professor of law at Columbia Law School and a leading expert in gun control policy, also said that reformers believe that the Supreme Court would just “strike them down, no matter how sane” a measure might seem.
“Even though a majority of citizens polled support basic restrictions on firearm sales and possession, there is no appetite for their adoption other than in selected states,” Fagan said, adding that there is dispute on how effective laws can be.
“They don’t believe these solutions would stem the bloodshed, given the enormous volume of guns in circulation,” he said. “They still believe a tiny minority of mentally ill or criminally violent people are responsible for the lost lives and bloodshed. Policy won’t help. Some may be nervous about, or fearful of government overreach.”
Priority and problems
At least one gun control advocacy group believes their recent polling shows the issue as front and center among Hispanics.
According to Everytown for Gun Safety, in a polling of Hispanic/Latino voters in battleground states, the issue is No. 1, ahead of economic issues like fuel prices and groceries.
The national survey was conducted from Aug. 28 to Sept. 10 by Global Strategy Group on behalf of Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund and BOLD America PAC, which supports progressive Hispanic candidates. It showed that 79% of respondents viewed stopping school shootings as the top political issue in the 2024 races.
General polling also shows some form of gun control repeatedly popular among the public, including a 2023 Pew poll that shows 61% of Americans saying it is simply too easy to obtain a gun in the U.S., including 38% who say they are gun owners.
Brannon Denning, a professor at Cumberland Law School at Samford University in Birmingham, said that confiscating guns in the U.S. simply is unrealistic, even if the only calls to do so are coming from Democratic politicians for a so-called assault weapons ban.
“The Second Amendment represents an ideological rejection of the modern notion that the State should have a monopoly on the instruments of violence, and one that has been in our political DNA since the early Republic,” Denning said. “Advocates for additional regulation, I think, bear the burden of showing why we should think additional regulations would bring down gun homicides.”
Reform potential
Rep. Phillip Ensler, D-Montgomery
In Alabama, where the GOP holds a supermajority, gun reform measures have gone nowhere but have stirred frustrations among Democratic lawmakers, law enforcement, and even arguably costs some Republicans their chances for re-election in the 2022 GOP primaries.
State Rep. Chris England, D-Tuscaloosa, who pushed to have criminal penalties for violating a provision within the state’s permitless carry law, said last year after his legislation was defeated that “the NRA runs this building,” referring to the Alabama Statehouse.
The latest showdown could be whether to apply state restrictions on Glock switches, or so-called trigger activators that can convert a handgun into an automatic weapon. Police say that one of the weapons used in Saturday’s shooting had a Glock switch on it, and Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin is calling on lawmakers to pass a state law adding additional penalties for their possession.
A bill pre-filed by Democratic state Rep. Phillip Ensler of Montgomery would make it a Class C felony under Alabama state law – punishable by up to 10 years in state prison – for anyone caught with a Glock switch on a pistol.
A similar bill to HB26 passed easily out of the Alabama House last spring and has Republican support. Co-sponsoring the measure next spring will be Rep. Allen Treadaway, R-Birmingham, a former assistant police chief with the Birmingham Police Department. Mississippi state lawmakers approved a similar measure last spring, which was signed into law by Republican Gov. Tate Reeves.
An NRA representative told AL.com last month that the possession of gun control conversion devices is already a felony under federal law.
Republican uncertainty
Some Alabama lawmakers agreed and were uncertain why a state law was needed. Proponents say a state Glock switch bill is needed to allow local law enforcement – and not rely on federal agents – to make arrests of criminals possessing the devices. The device, which can be purchased for around $100 or less, fits onto the back of a handgun and allows the user to switch between semi-automatic gunfire to fully automatic like a machine gun.
The Alabama Sheriff’s Association, the Alabama District Attorneys Association, the Fraternal Order of Police, and the Big 10 Mayors of Alabama – representing the 10 largest cities in the state, both Republican and Democrat – have advocated for stricter laws on Glock switches.
Related: How Alabama legislation banning Glock switches revived a ‘back the blue’ debate
But as the gun debate nationally shows, some Republican state lawmakers say they are wary over a Democratic lawmaker bringing forward a gun-related measure.
“Frankly, I’m nervous whenever a Democrat is bringing a gun bill,” said Sen. Chris Elliott, R-Josephine, who said he supports a “true bill banning Glock switches” but would prefer to review what is proposed by Ensler closely. “I understand what mayors and law enforcement officials are asking. But this is already illegal. It’s against federal law to have a modified Glock switch like this. I’m not sure how beneficial (HB26) would be.”
Gun right groups say the legislation carries significant importance. Mark Barden, co-founder and co-CEO of Sandy Hook Promise — a non-profit organization founded and led by family members of the victims of the 2012 mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newton, Conn. – called on individual states to take steps to “limit automatic switches and sears” and for federal agents to strengthen regulations to reverse a deadly trend.
Barden is the father of one of the victims in the 2012 massacre.
“The relative ease with which one can obtain and install these modifications is staggeringly alarming,” he said.
But further restrictions on guns is unlikely in Alabama, Elliott said, given the rural/urban split in the state and the overwhelming majority of Republicans in leadership.
“Gun rights are very important to folks and a lot of folks see them as a single issue,” he said. “I think it will be something you will continue seeing elected officials talk about in protecting your gun rights. It’s a requirement of the Republican primary that you are pro-gun, for sure.”