Recent polls of Minnesota voters point to a close presidential race in the North Star State, as former President Donald Trump could improve on his 2020 showing.
Republicans are hoping to flip Minnesota red for the first time in decades in November amid a close presidential race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Polling for Democrats, which collapsed at the presidential level after President Joe Biden‘s poor debate performance against Trump in June, mostly recovered after Harris became the nominee. But the race remains close, and the election is viewed as a toss-up by most election forecasters.
Former President Donald Trump attends the Lincoln Reagan Dinner in St. Paul Minnesota on May 17. Trump’s polls in Minnesota suggest he may build on his performance in the state four years earlier.
Scott Olson/Getty Images
In Minnesota, polls suggest Trump may be in a stronger position than he was four years ago, despite Harris picking the state’s governor, Tim Walz, as her running mate. Recent polls suggest the race could be decided by only a few points, and polling averages suggest the race could be tighter than it was four years ago.
FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate on Tuesday gave Harris a 6-point lead over Trump, while Real Clear Politics showed Harris up 5.3 points.
Meanwhile, a recent poll of the race conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy and sponsored by the Star Tribune, Minnesota Public Radio News and Minneapolis news station KARE showed Harris up five points over Trump (48 percent to 43 percent). It surveyed 800 likely voters from September 16 to 18.
While this would still point to a narrow victory for the Harris-Walz ticket, it would show Trump winning over some voters who backed Biden four years earlier.
Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the Hubert H. Humphrey School and the Department of Political Science at the University of Minnesota, told Newsweek that Trump is still in the race, and that undecided voters could be the difference in Minnesota.
“It’s quite possible—in Minnesota and elsewhere—that two-thirds of the 5 percent to 10 percent undecided will break in favor of Trump and tilt the race,” he said.
David Schultz, distinguished university professor of political science and legal studies at Hamline University in St. Paul, pointed to a drop in rural support for Democrats over local issues, as well as perceptions that Biden is more moderate than Harris.
“The Minnesota Democratic Party is increasingly more metro-dominated, and it is increasingly alienating and losing rural Democrats much in the same way the national Democrats are losing farmers and rural America because of a host of social issues,” he said, adding that some Democratic opposition to mining may be causing voters in the northern part of the state to shift toward Republicans.
Schultz noted that Walz’s reputation as a more liberal governor may also be playing a role in the state.
“With him on the ticket, the Democrats have weakened themselves by reinforcing the image that Harris and the Democratic Party is urban, liberal, pro-choice, pro-LGBTQ+ and indifferent to their concerns,” he said.
“Remember also that in 2022 Walz did not win a blowout election. He won against a weak Republican, and Walz’s stance on closing businesses during COVID was not popular statewide.”
Newsweek reached out to Harris’ campaign for comment via email.
On Monday, a GOP spokesperson expressed optimism about Trump’s chances of winning the state when reached by Newsweek.
“This November, Minnesotans will rally behind President Trump after living under the failed leadership of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz for the past four years,” GOP spokesperson Liz Huston said in a statement. “Minnesota families are being devastated by Democrat-induced inflation, open borders and a surge in crime across the state.”
Walz’s record has come under scrutiny since being named Harrs’ running mate. As governor, he has gained popularity from progressives over policies like free school lunches, as well as his support for reproductive and LGBTQ+ rights.
But his record as a congressman representing a Republican-leaning district was notably less liberal. He even received an “A” from the National Rifle Association while in Congress.
Even if polls are close this time around, Harris is favored to win Minnesota. The Cook Political report classifies it as “Likely Democrat.” However, if Republicans were to flip the state, it would severely complicate Harris’ path to 270 electoral votes.
Harris has gained ground in state compared to Biden before he dropped out of the race, as some polls were showing Trump with an advantage. The former president has not led in polls in Minnesota since Harris became the nominee.