POLITICO Playbook: What Trump is watching in today’s South Carolina primary

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

DRIVING THE DAY

It’s a Tuesday in 2022, which means it’s time for yet another stop in DONALD TRUMP’s post-presidency revenge tour against incumbent Republicans he thinks have wronged him.

Today will see two high-profile GOP primaries in South Carolina, where Reps. TOM RICE and NANCY MACE face Trump-backed opponents.

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Though there are similarities between the two — Rice was one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6 insurrection, while Mace, a freshman then on her third day in Congress, went on TV to slam Trump for lying about the 2020 election — today will be a case study in the divergent tactics the two have taken in responding to Trump’s attacks, as NYT’s Maya King noted Monday.

RICE’S APPROACH: LEAN IN TO THE CRITICISM — In a dispatch from Myrtle Beach, our Ally Mutnick reports on the backlash Rice has endured from Trump supporters angry over his continued critiques of the former president — ranging from death threats, to shouts of “traitor” from passing car windows, to an official censure by the South Carolina Republican Party (a copy of which Rice has hanging in his office). 

Rice’s challenger, state Rep. RUSSELL FRY, was endorsed by Trump in February and has made much of his campaign about Rice’s impeachment vote.

Even so, Rice is not changing his tune when it comes to Trump and Jan. 6. “I think that was one of the worst things, if not the worst, that a president has ever done in terms of attacking the Constitution and separation of powers,” he told Ally. “I just couldn’t stand for that.”

And he’s clear-eyed about what he thinks Trump is trying to do to the GOP as he supports primary challengers to people like Rice and Mace: “He’s purging. He’s purging. He’s trying to set the Republican Party up as a bunch of yes-men loyalists.”

— Worth noting: Today’s primary marks the first time this year that a Republican who voted for impeachment actually faces a Trump-backed primary challenger.

MACE’S APPROACH: ENDORSE TRUMP, EVEN AS HE SPURNS YOU — Where Rice has continued his criticisms of Trump, Mace has swung in the opposite direction, going so far as to travel to Manhattan and shoot a video in front of Trump Tower to reiterate her support for the former president even after he endorsed her opponent, KATIE ARRINGTON. 

“Trump’s ire has persisted,” writes WaPo’s Paul Schwartzman. “He has called her ‘crazy!’ ‘terrible!’ and ‘bad for the Republican Party!’ For her part, Mace says she holds no grudges and has suggested she would support Trump for president in 2024 if he is the party’s nominee.”

Mace’s race has also become something of a proxy war between Trump and former South Carolina Gov. NIKKI HALEY, who served as his ambassador to the U.N. but has more recently fallen out of favor in Trump world. Haley has campaigned for Mace in recent weeks, with some supporters eager to urge a 2024 run by the former governor.

WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD WATCH — In Nevada, Republicans are picking nominees for statewide races “that are expected to be among the most competitive November elections in the country,” our Zach Montellaro breaks down in his curtain-raiser this morning.

— For governor: “Clark County Sheriff JOE LOMBARDO is the GOP favorite for governor, having built a public polling lead even before Trump endorsed him. But the crowded Republican field also includes former Sen. DEAN HELLER, party-switching North Las Vegas Mayor JOHN LEE and former boxer JOEY GILBERT, among many others.”

— For the Senate: “[F]ormer state Attorney General ADAM LAXALT — who’s backed by both Trump and Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL — is trying to hold off a late GOP primary charge from SAM BROWN, an Army veteran. Laxalt has been a major backer of Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him, but he’s not alone on Nevada’s statewide ballot.”

Related read: “Election 2022: Nevada GOP contest crucial to Senate control,” by AP’s Michelle Price and Ken Ritter

— The big picture: “If a red wave arrives in November, as many expect, it will likely wash ashore in landlocked Nevada, a state whose recent history of Democratic victories masks just how hard-fought those triumphs have been,” writes NYT’s Blake Hounshell.

One major reason why Nevada could flip red: the economy. The pandemic “throttled the tourism industry, which makes up a huge portion of the state’s economy,” and unemployment is still above pre-pandemic levels. Then there’s inflation: “As of Monday, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in Nevada was $5.66, well above the $5 national average. … And rents in Las Vegas, a place with a famously transient population, are rising faster than in nearly any other city in the country.”

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

RECESSION WATCH — CNBC: “‘Profit recession’ warning as markets wait for aggressive central bank moves” NYT: “Bear Market Sends Grim Signal of Economic Fears”

Barron’s: “The Bear Market Is Officially Here. What Comes Next, According to History” POLITICO: “Stock plunge shakes confidence of higher-income Americans”

FED UP — The Fed was expected to raise interest rates by half a percentage point at its meeting Wednesday, but last week’s bad inflation report raised the likelihood that the central bank could surprise the country with an even bigger bump: 0.75 points, WSJ’s Nick Timiraos reports. That would be the largest interest rate hike since 1994, and economists are increasingly predicting that the Fed will go there.

— Related: Here’s a lede from Bloomberg’s Garfield Clinton Reynolds: “The Federal Reserve’s bid to contain the hottest inflation in decades will end in a recession. That’s the message the bond market is telegraphing.”

2024 WATCH — Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) told CNN’s Manu Raju that he’ll support President JOE BIDEN’s reelection and won’t primary him if he runs for a second term.

HEADLINE OF THE DAY — “‘Pack Your Stuff and Get Out of My House,’ Says Patriot Front Member’s Mom,” by The Daily Beast’s Justin Rohrlich and Kate Briquelet

BIDEN’S TUESDAY:

— 8:10 a.m.: The president will leave the White House for Philadelphia, arriving at 9:15 a.m.

— 11 a.m.: Biden will speak at the 29th AFL-CIO Quadrennial Constitutional Convention at the Pennsylvania Convention Center.

— 12:25 p.m.: Biden will leave Philadelphia to return to the White House, arriving at 1:30 p.m.

VP KAMALA HARRIS’ TUESDAY — The VP will lead a roundtable at 2:30 p.m. about what happens if Roe v. Wade is overturned, featuring “constitutional law, privacy, and technology experts.”

Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will gaggle on Air Force One on the way to Philly.

THE HOUSE will meet at 10 a.m. FEMA Administrator DEANNE CRISWELL will testify before a Homeland Security subcommittee at 10 a.m. Labor Secretary MARTY WALSH will testify before the Education and Labor Committee at 10:15 a.m. New Mexico Gov. MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM and Wyoming Gov. MARK GORDON will testify before the Select Climate Crisis Committee at 1 p.m.

THE SENATE will meet at 11 a.m. to take up the Honoring Our Promise to Address Comprehensive Toxics (PACT) Act, with a recess from 12:30 p.m. to 2:15 p.m. for weekly conference meetings.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

PLAYBOOK READS

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

COMMITTEE CONTROVERSY — Chair BENNIE THOMPSON (D-Miss.) told reporters Monday that the House Jan. 6 committee won’t make formal criminal referrals to the Justice Department. But some other committee members quickly broke with him, CNN’s Ryan Nobles, Annie Grayer and Zachary Cohen report.

Vice Chair LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.) tweeted Monday night that the committee hadn’t decided on that yet.

Rep. ELAINE LURIA (D-Va.) followed a few minutes later: “If criminal activity occurred, it is our responsibility to report that activity to the DOJ.”

And even the committee officially pulled back from Thompson’s comments, with a spokesperson saying in a statement that they would “make criminal referrals” “if warranted.”

ICYMI: We broke down Monday’s Jan. 6 Committee hearing in Playbook PM. Subscribe here

GUNS IN AMERICA

THE SENATE DEAL — The framework for gun legislation that senators agreed to this weekend would cost $15 billion to $20 billion, NBC’s Yamiche Alcindor and Josh Lederman scooped. Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) said the bill will be fully paid for by repurposing existing money. One of the options being eyed is a Medicare rebate.

— “But a Cornyn aide downplayed that figure, saying it’s unknowable at this time because the bill hasn’t been written yet,” report NBC’s Sahil Kapur, Frank Thorp V and Ali Vitali.

Where things stand: The negotiators still have plenty of work ahead to turn their framework into an actual bill without losing supporters, but they’re moving fast in hopes of passing it within the next couple of weeks, Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine report. Senate Judiciary Chair DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.) said it will likely bypass his committee. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER vowed to bring it to the floor ASAP. And “Republicans want to clinch the deal as soon as possible, both to ensure conservatives don’t mobilize against the legislation and to allow them to shift their rhetoric back to the economy.”

— Senate Republicans who haven’t gotten on board yet were largely holding their fire Monday, waiting to see the details and the reaction from groups opposing gun restrictions, report WSJ’s Natalie Andrews and Cameron McWhirter. “Sen. MIKE BRAUN (R-Ind.) said he was open to the framework and didn’t see any obvious problems in the proposed provisions. ‘I am interested to see where the NRA is on it,’ Mr. Braun added … ‘The devil is in the details,’ said Sen. MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.). ‘And if this was easy to do, it would have been done a long time ago.’”

CNN’s Lauren Fox and Ted Barrett are more bearish on the bill’s prospects among Senate Republicans, who they report were skeptical and slow to warm to the framework Monday.

Notable detail: “Alaska Republican Sen. LISA MURKOWSKI told reporters she would not answer questions about the bill, in part, because she left her phone on the West coast and was not up to speed on the latest.”

— Though passage certainly isn’t assured yet, The Atlantic’s Russell Berman is already out with a look at how the negotiators managed to achieve success so far. One detail that stood out to us: “Instead of encountering blowback from voters at home, Republican lawmakers reported to Democrats that they felt an urgency from their constituents to act.”

— A.G. MERRICK GARLAND said the bill would be “meaningful progress,” per Reuters.

A DIFFERENT APPROACH — Ohio Gov. MIKE DEWINE signed into law a bill that will allow teachers and other school staff to arm themselves with guns after undergoing 24 hours of training. More from The Columbus Dispatch

CONGRESS

THE CHINA COMPETITIVENESS BILL — Senate and House negotiators from both parties have agreed on legislation that would give the U.S. new authority to screen private-sector investments in places like China, part of the big semiconductor/China competitiveness bill, WSJ’s Kate O’Keeffe, Natalie Andrews and Heather Somerville scooped. The compromise would limit the screenings to certain technologies and sectors, which supporters say is crucial for national security, but it has prompted backlash from the business community.

HEADED TO BIDEN’S DESK — The House passed an ocean shipping bill on a bipartisan 369-42 vote, intended in part to ameliorate some supply chain and inflation struggles. Biden’s planning to sign it into law. More from Reuters

JUDICIARY SQUARE

POLITICAL VIOLENCE WATCH — The man accused of planning to murder Justice BRETT KAVANAUGH texted his sister after seeing deputy U.S. marshals in Chevy Chase, and she helped get him to call 911, authorities said, per WaPo’s Dan Morse.

Meanwhile, the Senate-passed bill to add police protection for justices’ families hit some snags Monday as the House tried to make changes. Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) said House Dems’ push to include clerks and court staff in the bill would “make a mockery of what Sen. [CHRIS] COONS and I tried to do,” per Fox News’ Kelly Phares.

But by Monday evening, CNN’s Manu Raju reported that the House planned to pass the Senate bill today.

ALL POLITICS

IT’S OFFICIAL — Rep. YOUNG KIM (R-Calif.) is moving on to the general election, a sigh of relief for establishment Republicans after she faced an unexpectedly vigorous challenge from fellow Republican GREG RATHS in the primary. More from the L.A. Times

THE NEW GOP — At Monday’s New York GOP gubernatorial debate, support for Trump was the on-stage candidates’ key metric, along with conservative credentials on hot-button social policy issues, reports NYT’s Jesse McKinley. And they didn’t always play nice.

Rep. LEE ZELDIN on HARRY WILSON: “You’re on the wrong debate stage, man.”

Wilson on Zeldin: “You’re a child.”

2022 WATCH — The Washington Free Beacon’s Alana Goodman dug into the story of Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK’s (D-Ga.) older brother, whose incarceration Warnock has often highlighted on the campaign trail. From paging through court records, she reports: “[KEITH] COLEMAN was a cop with the Savannah Police Department when he was convicted of facilitating a cross-country cocaine trafficking operation in 1996 and 1997 — and once warned that he could send a drug dealer’s ‘black ass’ to prison if the dealer didn’t pay Coleman more money. The details conflict with Warnock’s accounts, which omit that Coleman was a police officer and portray him as a victim of law enforcement corruption rather than a participant in it.”

THE ECONOMY

WHAT THEY’RE READING IN THE WHITE HOUSE — WSJ’s Nick Timiraos and Jon Hilsenrath dive deep into how Washington got inflation wrong last year and find a classic mistake: using the lessons from the last crisis for this one. Policymakers worried about the pandemic generating “weak demand, slow growth, long periods of high unemployment and too-low inflation,” and they wanted to spend more on legislative priorities. Though Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN thought LARRY SUMMERS might have a point with his warnings, she also repeatedly told Biden “that doing too little was a greater risk than doing too much.”

TOP-ED — “Inflation Isn’t Going to Bring Back the 1970s,” by Ben Bernanke, chair of the Federal Reserve from 2006 to 2014

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

HATE WATCH — It’s not just the arrest of 31 white supremacists near a pride event in Idaho: Anti-LGBT rhetoric is growing among far-right extremists across the country, often fueled by conservative social media accounts like Libs of TikTok, reports AP’s Rebecca Boone.

PLAYBOOKERS

José Andrés will open an outpost of his Bazaar restaurant in the former Trump hotel in D.C., now under new management, after his plans years ago under Donald Trump fell apart, WaPo’s Emily Heil reports.

A Matt Drudge biopic, “The Drudge Revolution,” has landed at a production company — and it’s not the only script about him out there.

The 19th is hosting a three-day summit in D.C., “50 Years of Title IX,” starting Wednesday. The event “will mark 50 years of advances in gender equity in higher education, athletics, the workforce and beyond.”

TRAGIC NEWS — Rep. Sean Casten’s (D-Ill.) 17-year-old daughter, Gwen, died Monday morning, his office announced. News and remembrances from the Chicago Tribune

SPOTTED: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sens. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), Tina Smith (D-Minn.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) having dinner together Monday night at Sfoglina’s downtown location.

OUT AND ABOUT — Some big names in media gathered last night at a party celebrating the release of host Katy Tur’s book release party at Pebble Bar in Rockefeller Plaza. SPOTTED: Cesar Conde, Rashida Jones, Gayle King, Tony Dokupil, Vladimir Duthiers, Shawna Thomas, Ari Melber, Yasmin Vossoughian, Chris Jansing, Alicia Menendez, Shimon Prokupecz, Ali Zelenko, Richard Hudock, Rachel Adler, Lorie Acio and Stephen Labaton.

The U.S. Global Leadership Coalition, led by Liz Schrayer, on Monday hosted its Global Impact Forum, with over 300 state leaders who came to Washington to advocate for the international affairs budget. SPOTTED: USAID Administrator Samantha Power, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack,Nate Mook,Morgan Ortagus,Clarissa Ward,Scott Nathan, David Urban, retired Adm. James Stavridis, Heather Nauert,Arrow Augerot,Joanna Price,Gregg Szabo.

— The Shakespeare Theatre Company’s 2022 Will on the Hill event raised money Monday for the theater’s arts education programs. SPOTTED: Justin Guarini, Nat Cassidy, Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.) and Mark Warner (D-Va.), Reps. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.), David Cicilline (D-R.I.), Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) and Nikema Williams (D-Ga.), Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C.), Grover Norquist, Nichole Francis Reynolds and Vin Roberti.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Saira Zaki is now a senior managing director at Levinson Group. She most recently was global director of comms at Dechert LLP.

TRANSITIONS — Brendan McPhillips is the new campaign manager for Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman’s Democratic Senate bid, per the Philly Inquirer. He previously ran Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign in the state. … Cinthya Hagemeier is now senior comms officer for the Resettlement, Asylum and Integration U.S. program at the International Rescue Committee. She most recently was comms associate for the IMF. …

… Sarah Gallo is joining the Consumer Brands Association as VP of product policy. She most recently was at the Biotechnology Innovation Organization, and is a CHS, National Corn Growers and House Small Business alum. … Craig Wolf is now security justice adviser for the Office of the U.S. Security Coordinator for Israel and the Palestinian Authority. He most recently was Operations in the Pacific Islands Judge Advocate for the U.S. Army, and is a USAID alum.

ENGAGED — Ian Winick, principal at Hilltop Public Solutions, proposed to Hannah Byrd, program manager at Emma’s Torch, at CityCenterDC on Friday. During a walk with their dog Clementine, Ian asked if Hannah had seen her new collar. When Hannah bent down to see that the new collar had a dog tag that read “Marry me?” she turned around to see Ian on one knee with the ring. The couple had their first date at the Big Hunt when Ian was back in town from the Beto O’Rourke campaign for the Nats World Series in 2019. Instapics

WEDDING — Phil Vangelakos, managing partner of Push Digital, and Shayna Erickson, who works in sales, recently got married at the Dewberry Hotel in Charleston, S.C. The couple met at a grocery store when they reached for the same avocado, touched hands, ended up talking about guacamole and then started dating. Pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Claudia L. Santiago, government affairs representative at Conagra Brands and a Jim Costa alum, and Orlando Santiago Jr., a TSA IT specialist, on June 6 welcomed Olena Remi, who joins big brother Orlando III “Santi.” Pic

— Matt Simpson, a member at Mintz, Levin, Cohn, Ferris, Glovsky and Popeo, and Tara Van De Mark, a creative writer, welcomed Simon Simpson Van De Mark on June 4.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Former President Donald Trump … House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer … Rep. Bob Gibbs (R-Ohio) … Brian Fallon of Demand Justice and Barracks Row Media … State Department’s Allison Lombardo … former Reps. Billy Tauzin (R-La.) and Jim Sensenbrenner (R-Wis.) … Meta’s Campbell BrownMack McLarty of McLarty Associates … Leonard Blavatnik … Northwestern Mutual’s Christopher GahanRegan PageKristen BartoloniJulia CohenPavel KhodorkovskyJohn McFarlane David Keller of Rep. Jim Banks’ (R-Ind.) office … YouTube’s Alexandra Veitch … Chamber of Commerce’s Sara ArmstrongCrystal Bowyer … CNN’s Pete Muntean … Wilson Center’s Ryan McKenna Bill Wasserman of M+R … Shomik Sarkar … BP’s Josh Hicks Aaron Williams … NPR’s Tom GjeltenChris Liddell-WestefeldCarol ApeltPat ProctorAndrew BairScot Ross … WaPo’s Robert Klemko

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